Three States, Three Destinies: A Political Economy Analysis of SDG Performance in Gujarat, West Bengal, and Uttar Pradesh

Abstract

India’s federal system provides opportunities for each state to follow different paths of development. This analysis examines three critical states that follow different paradigms: Gujarat, characterized by its swift yet divisive capital-intensive growth model; West Bengal, a state grappling with the repercussions of deindustrialization; and Uttar Pradesh, a densely populated state whose advancement is crucial for India’s national development. This study aims to conduct a political economy analysis to examine how the unique political characteristics, historical contexts, and ideological priorities of these three states influence their performance on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). A comparative case study methodology was used, combining quantitative data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5), the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), and the NITI Aayog SDG Index with a qualitative evaluation of each state’s political history, governance frameworks, and prevailing policy decisions. The comparative case study analysis reveals three divergent developmental trajectories for the three states.
The trajectory of Gujarat is characterized by a preference for state-driven, capital-intensive growth, resulting in advanced infrastructure but revealing a significant deficit in human capital development. The development experience of West Bengal illustrates the contradiction of “welfarism without growth,” wherein comprehensive social safety nets establish a baseline for numerous citizens, yet a stagnant economy presents limited opportunities for upward mobility. Influenced by a history of foundational neglect, governance has posed the greatest challenge to the development of Uttar Pradesh, which requires immediate attention to realize its potential. The study concludes that Sustainable Development Goal outcomes are not only a result of fiscal calculations but also of a complex mix of political choices, historical legacies, and ideological priorities. This underscores the importance of political economy in shaping development and provides valuable insights for federal nations on how to achieve equitable and sustainable progress.